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Bus Tickets - South Africa

South Africa

South Africa's Bus Tickets market is expected to generate a revenue of €109.80m in 2024.
The revenue is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.39% between 2024 and 2029, resulting in a market volume of €129.70m by 2029.
The number of users in this market is expected to reach 4.12m users by 2029, with a user penetration rate of 5.8% in 2024 and 6.4% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is anticipated to be €30.95.
By 2029, 46% of the total revenue in the Bus Tickets market will be generated through online sales.
It is notable that in 2024, China is expected to generate the most revenue with a total of €4,610m in the Bus Tickets market, when compared globally.
South Africa's bus market is undergoing a shift towards electric and hybrid models in response to increased environmental awareness.

Key regions: United States, Europe, Malaysia, Germany, Thailand

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Analyst Opinion

The Buses market in South Africa has been experiencing steady growth in recent years, driven by several key factors.

Customer preferences: Customers in South Africa have shown a growing preference for buses as a mode of transportation. Buses offer a cost-effective and convenient way to travel, especially for longer distances. They are also considered to be more environmentally friendly compared to individual cars. Additionally, buses provide a safer option for commuting, particularly in areas with high crime rates.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the South African bus market is the increasing demand for luxury and comfort features. As disposable incomes rise and consumers seek more comfortable travel experiences, bus manufacturers have responded by offering buses with amenities such as air conditioning, reclining seats, and entertainment systems. This trend is particularly evident in the tourism sector, where luxury buses are in high demand for sightseeing tours and long-distance travel. Another trend in the market is the adoption of electric buses. South Africa has been making efforts to reduce its carbon footprint and transition to cleaner energy sources. As a result, there has been a growing interest in electric buses, which offer lower emissions and reduced operating costs compared to traditional diesel buses. The government has also introduced incentives and subsidies to encourage the adoption of electric buses, further driving the market growth in this segment.

Local special circumstances: South Africa has a large and diverse population, with a significant portion of the population residing in rural areas. This creates a need for reliable and affordable transportation options to connect these communities with urban centers. Buses play a crucial role in fulfilling this need, providing a lifeline for many rural residents who rely on public transportation for work, education, and healthcare access. Another local special circumstance is the high incidence of road accidents in South Africa. The country has one of the highest rates of road fatalities in the world. As a result, there is a growing focus on improving road safety, including the implementation of stricter regulations for public transportation. This has led to increased demand for buses that meet higher safety standards, such as those equipped with advanced braking systems, seat belts, and driver assistance technologies.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The South African economy has been experiencing slow growth in recent years, with high unemployment rates and income inequality. This has resulted in limited purchasing power for many consumers, leading to a preference for more affordable modes of transportation like buses. The government has also been investing in public transportation infrastructure to improve accessibility and reduce congestion in major cities, further supporting the growth of the bus market. In conclusion, the Buses market in South Africa is developing due to customer preferences for cost-effective and convenient transportation options, as well as the increasing demand for luxury and electric buses. Local special circumstances, such as the need for transportation in rural areas and the focus on road safety, also contribute to the market growth. These trends are supported by underlying macroeconomic factors, including slow economic growth and government investments in public transportation infrastructure.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and online shares of bus tickets.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party studies and reports, federal statistical offices, industry associations, and price data. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as demographic data, GDP, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device usage. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.