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Public Transportation - Ethiopia

Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, the revenue of the Public Transportation market is estimated to reach €0.72bn by 2025.
The projected annual growth rate (CAGR 2025-2029) is expected to be 9.36%, which can result in a market volume of €1.03bn by 2029.
As for the number of users, it is anticipated to reach 70.13m users by 2029.
The user penetration rate is expected to increase from 38.6% in 2025 to 48.0% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to be €13.92 in the Public Transportation market.
Online sales are expected to account for 20% of the total revenue by 2029.
It is worth noting that, in comparison to other countries, United States is predicted to generate the most revenue in the Public Transportation market, with an estimated revenue of €47bn in 2025.
The introduction of the new Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit system has revolutionized public transportation in Ethiopia's capital city.

Key regions: South America, Malaysia, China, Thailand, United States

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Analyst Opinion

The Public Transportation market in Ethiopia is experiencing significant growth and development in recent years. Customer preferences, trends in the market, local special circumstances, and underlying macroeconomic factors all contribute to this positive trajectory. Customer preferences in Ethiopia are shifting towards more convenient and efficient modes of transportation. As the population grows and urbanization continues, there is an increasing demand for reliable public transportation options. People are looking for alternatives to private vehicles, which can be expensive and time-consuming in congested urban areas. This shift in customer preferences is driving the expansion and improvement of the public transportation market. Trends in the market reflect the government's efforts to meet the growing demand for public transportation in Ethiopia. The government has been investing heavily in infrastructure development, particularly in the transportation sector. This includes the construction of new roads, bridges, and railway lines, as well as the expansion of existing public transportation systems. These investments aim to improve connectivity and accessibility, making public transportation more attractive to commuters. Local special circumstances also play a role in the development of the public transportation market in Ethiopia. The country has a large rural population, but urbanization is increasing at a rapid pace. This creates unique challenges in providing transportation services that cater to both urban and rural areas. The government is working towards addressing these challenges by implementing integrated transportation systems that connect urban and rural areas, ensuring that public transportation is accessible to all. Underlying macroeconomic factors contribute to the growth of the public transportation market in Ethiopia. The country has been experiencing steady economic growth in recent years, which has led to an increase in disposable income and consumer spending. As people have more money to spend, they are more likely to use public transportation services for their daily commute. Additionally, the government's investment in infrastructure development stimulates economic activity and job creation, further boosting the demand for public transportation. In conclusion, the Public Transportation market in Ethiopia is developing and expanding due to changing customer preferences, government investments in infrastructure, local special circumstances, and underlying macroeconomic factors. The shift towards more convenient and efficient modes of transportation, coupled with the government's efforts to improve connectivity and accessibility, are driving the growth of the market. As the country continues to urbanize and experience economic growth, the demand for public transportation services is expected to continue to rise.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and online shares of public transportation.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party studies and reports, federal statistical offices, industry associations, and price data. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as demographic data, GDP, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device usage. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.