Share of population aged 60 and older in China 1950-2100

In 2020, about 17.8 percent of the population in China had been 60 years and older. This share is growing rapidly and was estimated to reach nearly 40 percent by 2050.

China's aging population

With China’s boomer generation growing old and life expectancy increasing at the same time, the number of people at an age of 60 or above nearly doubled between 2000 and 2020 and reached around 254 million. This development is even more pronounced for the age group of 80 and above, which nearly tripled and is expected to reach a size of roughly 135 million in 2050, up from only 32 million in 2020. At the same time, the share of the working-age population is forecasted to decrease gradually from 64 percent of the total population in 2020 to around 50 percent in 2050, which could pose a heavy economic strain on the social security system. The old-age dependency ratio, which denotes the relation of the old-age to the working-age population, is estimated to grow from 18.2 percent in 2020 to more than 50 percent in 2050, implying that by then, statistically, two working-age adults would have to support one elderly.

Strain on the social security net

During the last 15 years, China's government has successfully increased the coverage of the pension insurance and health insurance. Today, most of the people are covered by some kind of social insurance. Conditions in the pension system are generous, with a regular retirement age for males at 60 years and women at 50 or 55. With the number of retirees increasing quickly, the social insurance system is now under pressure. From an economic point of view, improving the productivity of China's economy would be the primary choice for mitigating alleged inconsistencies of the system. However, without increasing the burden on the working people while tightening payment conditions, balancing the social security net could prove to be challenging.